About

Inflation Pressure Index

A single monthly reading of how much upward pressure is building in US consumer prices.

Why this exists

Headline inflation numbers arrive late and move for reasons that have little to do with the underlying trend. A single month can be dominated by energy prices or a one-off change in how a category is measured. The IPI is an attempt to summarise the underlying pressure in one number that is easy to follow month to month.

How to read it

The index runs from 0 to 100, where 50 represents the long-run average. Higher readings mean more upward pressure on consumer prices; lower readings mean less.

Cooling

below 35

Easing

below 45

Neutral

below 55

Elevated

below 70

High

70 and above

Method

The methodology is still being finalised and will be published here in full, along with the underlying series and the code used to build them. Until then, the figures shown on this site are illustrative.

Who makes it

Cem Karaman publishes this index and writes about what moves it. Notes on each month's reading appear on the blog.