Reading the August index
The August reading came in at 62.4, up 4.3 points from July and the fifth consecutive monthly increase. That puts the index firmly in the elevated band for the first time since the series begins.
A single month rarely deserves a strong conclusion, and this one is no exception. Roughly two thirds of the increase traces back to a single category, and the categories that tend to lead turning points were close to flat.
What moved
- Services excluding shelter contributed most of the increase.
- Goods prices were essentially unchanged for the third month running.
- Shelter continued its slow decline, partially offsetting the rest.
What to watch next
The question for September is whether services pressure broadens out or stays concentrated. A broad move would be the more meaningful signal. Concentration in one category usually resolves itself within a quarter.
I will publish the category-level breakdown alongside the methodology once it is finalised.